Fragmented Connectivity in the Middle Corridor: National Interests vs. Regional Integration

Abstract

Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing sanctions regime have elevated Eurasian transport corridors from efficiency projects to instruments of economic security and geopolitical risk management. This article examines why the rapid prioritization of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (the Middle Corridor) has not produced corridor-wide institutional integration and operational harmonization commensurate with its heightened strategic salience. Focusing on the Caspian segment, it develops the concept of fragmented connectivity, defined as the coexistence of expanding physical links and disjointed governance, yielding uneven rules, selective permeability, and persistent frictions at borders and modal interfaces. The study applies Gaens, Sinkkonen, and Vogt’s spheres-and-logics framework to a qualitative comparative analysis of Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan, tracing how policy instruments and operational practices are distributed across six connectivity spheres and shaped by distinct strategic logics. The analysis differentiates declared logics expressed in strategies and diplomatic narratives from enacted logics observable in procedures, pricing arrangements, documentation requirements, and screening practices. The article argues that fragmentation persists because strategic logics collide across spheres in implementation. Cooperative infrastructure upgrading is frequently offset by contestation over tariff-setting and rent capture. Cushioning through diversified partnerships dilutes incentives to align on binding rules, while security-driven compliance and risk management harden selective barriers, reducing end-to-end predictability. By linking domestic political priorities and national interest formation to corridor governance outcomes, the article contributes to connectivity scholarship and Asian security debates by showing how sanctions-era corridorization can generate contested ordering rather than integrated regional interdependence.